Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
